This post is about another element of the current US nuclear forces modernization program, specifically the Sea Launched Cruise Missile - Nuclear (SLCM-N). But before getting into the specifics of that program, we need to clear up a few misunderstandings about the concept of a so-called "tactical" nuclear weapon.
There are various definitions of the word tactical as applies to nuclear weapons, but mostly there is agreement within the weapons establishment that tactical nuclear weapons are short range ones, whatever that means [2]. It does not mean small, though the very highest yield ones (170 kilotons in the US arsenal; 100 kT in the Russian) are somewhat smaller than the average yields of strategic weapons. Some would have us believe that tactical nuclear weapons are very limited in the extent of their damage, and therefore suitable for use on the battlefield against enemy troop formations and the like, sparing nearby civilian towns etc. To demonstrate the falsity of that notion, we introduce the story of Barbara Kent (center in the above photo) and her 12 fellow campers, five of whom are shown bathing with her on the morning of July 16, 1945 near Ruidoso, NM [3]. The group was awakened that morning by the light and sound of the Trinity test, some 50 miles distant. The Trinity device, like the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, could currently be classified as tactical nuclear weapons, as their yields were in the 15- to 21 kiloton regime, a quarter or less of the class median.
On the afternoon of that day, thirteen year old Barbara and her companions noticed white, snow-like flakes, drifting down from the sky, and proceeded to frolic in them. Nobody had told them about the nature of the explosion they had witnessed; to the contrary a cover story had been issued blaming an ammunition accident, so they could not have possibly known that they were playing in highly radioactive fallout. As a consequence of their experience, of the twelve girls and Carmen Dean, the adult chaperon, all but Barbara died of cancer within 18 years, and Barbara herself has had multiple bouts with the disease. So much for the notion that the effects of a tactical nuclear weapon are confined to the immediate vicinity of the blast. And as to destructiveness, ask the people of Hiroshima or Nagasaki.
But the fallout is more widespread than that. The picture below, adapted from [4] shows the measured and simulated fallout patterns from the Trinity test one day after the explosion. The town of Ruidoso has been added east-southeast of ground zero, and the scale of the pattern can be appreciated knowing that the points A and B are 479 statute miles apart. (Reference [4] shows the development of the Trinity fallout pattern over six days, during which it spread thousands of miles.)
It is evidently correct to assert that the damage from a tactical nuclear weapon is both widespread and devastating. Given that the fallout pattern depends exquisitely upon the time-evolving atmospheric currents, it is essentially impossible to employ such a weapon without unpredictable adverse long distance consequences. For example, were the Russians to employ tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there is a significant probability of adverse effects in neighboring countries also. We must therefore see such as threats not only to Ukraine, but to NATO countries as well, with all the consequences that entails. Tactical nuclear weapons are destabilizing! We should not use misleading terminology to describe them.
Ship- and submarine launched cruise missiles with nuclear warheads were deployed by the US Navy during the cold war, but withdrawn from service during the administration of George W. Bush. During Barack Obama's presidency these missiles were officially retired from service, but a new SLCM-N program was undertaken during the presidency of Donald Trump. [5] President Biden's administration defunded the program, stating that
"The Administration strongly opposes continued funding for the nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) and its associated warhead. The President’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review concluded that SLCM-N, which would not be delivered before the 2030s, has marginal utility and would impede investment in other priorities. Further, deploying SLCM-N on Navy attack submarines or surface combatants would reduce capacity for conventional strike munitions, create additional burdens on Naval training, maintenance, and operations, and could create additional risks to the Navy’s ability to operate in key regions in support of our deterrence and warfighting objectives." [6]
However, various members of Congress have continued to add funding for SLCM-N and a new nuclear warhead (the W80-4) into the Defense and DOE budgets, to the tune of 305 million dollars in 2023 and 2024 alone [7] - [8], of which 245 million dollars were appropriated [9]. Those are incomplete R&D costs; in addition, the procurement cost would be in the several billions.
The debate over the SLCM-N continues in Congress, and once again its advocates have succeeded in adding money for it into the FY-2025 budget. Arguments in its favor become ever more ridiculous, for example by claiming that our continued pursuit of this program will provide incentive for the Russians to cancel their land based cruise missile program and return to arms reduction negotiations [9] even though the opposite is the case: The knee-jerk response to escalation is escalation. One of the principal problems with our national discussion on nuclear weapons is the politicians' fear of appearing to be soft on the issue. It is up to us, the voters to educate ourselves on the topic and demand responsible behavior by our representatives. Please contact your representative and senators, urging them to join the effort to cancel the SLCM-N.
Notes
[1] Photo taken from https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-07/collateral-damage-american-civilian-survivors-of-the-1945-trinity-test/ which amplifies on the story outlined here.
[2] https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/tactical-nuclear-weapons
[3] In addition to [1], I've found several other articles on Barbara Kent and her fellow campers at Carmadean's Dance Camp. Here are links to a couple: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/lawmakers-move-urgently-to-recognize-survivors-of-the-first-atomic-bomb-test and https://www.dannydutch.com/post/carmadean-s-dance-camp-a-summer-in-the-shadow-of-the-atomic-bomb
[4] Philippe, S., et al. Fallout from US atmospheric nuclear tests in New Mexico and Nevada (1945-1962), https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.11040v1
[5] https://physicistscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SLCM-N-Fact-Seet-April-20-2023-FINAL.pdf
[6] https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/tactical-nuclear-weapons
[7] https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/NDAA.pdf
Thanks for your good thinking and writing, Stephen!