Nuclear Sufficiency
Only the existence of life on earth is at stake
Were we to catalog a list of problems with our (in the large sense) nuclear warfare strategy, not the least important would be the facts that the potential damage is so great as to be incomprehensible, and that the military planners on all sides are so narrowly focused that their plans completely discount the long term consequences. As a result, several nations have built up nuclear arsenals that can only be described as obscene. Obscene in the sense that the employment of the arsenal of just one of the three larger nuclear powers would not produce "Mutually Assured Destruction " (their own terminology, and the subject of my previous post), but rather Self Assured Destruction [1] because it would trigger a nuclear winter with life-ending consequences. Just as they refuse to acknowledge long term effects such as radiation and radioactive fallout induced cancers, birth defects and other illnesses, the militarists and their enablers simply ignore the ever-growing body of evidence pointing to catastrophic global consequences of their plans. When pressed, they profess ignorance or express skepticism, and yet in the 41 years since the publication of the famous TTAPS paper [2] there has not been a single peer-reviewed scientific paper presenting evidence that contradicts the nuclear winter prediction.
In this post, a different tack is taken in attempting to mobilize the public in supporting a more rational nuclear weapons stance. Rather than talking about megadeaths or worse, let's talk about what would happen to a single US city in the event of a very restrained nuclear war. Based on the understanding that follows, you are encouraged to decide whether such a modest war should be contemplated, and thus whether nuclear arsenals should be resized to preclude a larger war, or indeed even such a modest one. The idea is to replace the notion of Self Assured Destruction with one which retains the feature of deterrence while scaling the possible consequences to a recoverable level. How many nukes are sufficient?
To arrive at a scenario, the results of modeling the climate impact of a war between India and Pakistan were considered [3]. Using climate models current as of 2019, they predicted using 15-, 50- or 100 kiloton weapons comprising most but not all of the two countries' relatively modest arsenals could produce a sufficient degree and duration of global cooling to result in a 15 - 30% reduction in land productivity for up to ten years, leading to widespread loss of life due to famine.
In our scenario[4], the US and Russia are each constrained to use of only 50 nuclear weapons - less than 3% of each side's currently deployed force. As the Russian planner, I choose to use Russia's 50 weapons against the 25 largest US metropolitan areas[5]. Allocating the weapons according to population, using US census data [6], I find that five US metropoles (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth) are targeted with three or more weapons, nine are targeted with two, and that eleven cities are targeted with one. From that latter group I picked St Louis, MO for investigation. It is the target for a typical, 100 kiloton yield Russian ICBM warhead. The picture at the top of the post is my artist's conception of the strike, some milliseconds after detonation of the 100 kton air burst directly over the corner of Market Street and Tucker Avenue in the noon to 2 PM time frame on a work and school day. The fireball is developing, but will not touch the ground at its maximum extent.
For weapons in the 100 kiloton yield regime, about 60% of the energy is in the shock wave, with 35% thermal energy and 5% prompt radiation. Those are the things that kill and damage quickly; radiation from fallout, though twice as great as the prompt radiation is not included in ordinary calculations largely because its effects are felt over long periods - up to decades, and because they are spatially unpredictable. At the moment of launch, the attacker is very unsure of the wind patterns and evolution at the target at the time of the explosion and for the days afterwards. So we will have to content ourselves with the assurance that the fifty weapon explosions are likely to cause millions of delayed deaths due to the effects of delayed radioactive fallout, as well as to the low levels of prompt exposure within a few kilometers of the detonations.
In the following I have used the quantitative relations and measures of damage criteria from Glasstone and Dolan [7], except that, rather than using their assumption of 50 miles visibility I used 25 miles, which I consider to be more consistent with clear day weather conditions (in 2024 vice 1977). We start with an overview of the effects, and then proceed to discuss the fates of some individual targets. We begin with blast effects.
The above St Louis street map is of an area measuring 6.22 by 4.25 statute miles, an area of 26.4 square miles. Not shown is the 1 pound per square inch (psi) overpressure ring, because, at a radius of 6.1 miles, its 12.2 mile diameter contour is completely outside the limits of the chart. An overpressure of 1 psi is sufficient to break window glass, so within the area depicted, almost every window is blown out. Well, not exactly: Windows facing in the direction toward ground zero are blown it, showering the interiors with flying glass fragments, while the other windows are blown out. Depending on size and velocity, the fragments can cause lacerations or penetrate the skin.
The 2 psi pressure contour, 3.7 miles in radius, partially fits on the map. The corresponding wind gust is about 69 mph. We need to be careful not to be too literal in our interpretation of wind speeds, because in ordinary experience we do not encounter sudden transitions from still air to 69 mph. The 2 psi overpressure is a case in point: It is sufficient to cause failure of wood siding in typical residential construction, connection failure of aluminum or corrugated steel building wall panels, and damage to unreinforced concrete or cinder block walls. Figure 3 of the supplement to [3] (hereinafter referred to as "Fig3"), based on fitting a Gaussian distribution to fatality data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, allows estimation of the fatality rate as a function of distance. It should be regarded as informative vice definitive. Per Fig3 the fatality rate at 3.7 miles is 13%.
The 5 psi contour, 2.0 miles in radius, corresponds to a wind speed of 160 mph, just greater than a category 5 hurricane, and is more than sufficient to shatter wood or conventional siding panels, tear off shingled roofs, and shatter unreinforced concrete or cinder block walls. It is also sufficient to topple over 90% of the trees, snap utility poles, and introduce moderate to severe damage to unreinforced masonry walls. Vehicles exposed to side loading at this level are overturned. According to Fig3 the fatality rate at this distance is 55%. As of July 2024 there are 29 St Louis public schools within the 5 psi contour [9].
An overpressure of 10 psi is experienced at a distance 1.65 miles from ground zero, and the corresponding wind speed is 260 mph, corresponding to the upper bound of a Fujita scale 4 ("devastating") tornado [10]. Large railway cars are knocked off the tracks. Brick buildings are knocked down. Per Fig3, the fatality rate at this distance is 67%.
The 20 psi contour is at a distance of 1.04 miles from ground zero the corresponding wind speed is about 450 mph, a speed unachievable by the worst of tornadoes. In the interval between this and the 10 psi contours the threshold for catastrophic damage to steel reinforced structures such as street overpasses and highway- and railroad bridges is reached. At this distance, Fig3 indicates an 85% fatality rate. Note from the map that the entire downtown area of St Louis is within the 20 psi contour.
Next we present the thermal- and nuclear radiation data. When the weapon explodes, an expanding fireball forms. Initially the fireball is extremely hot, but as it expands it cools in accordance with the laws of classical thermodynamics. The radiant flux is proportional to the fourth power of the temperature and the area of the fireball, so the thermal energy is released over time. For a 100 kt weapon, the peak thermal energy flux occurs at 0.32 seconds, with 50% and 80% of the thermal energy delivered within 0.68 and 3.3 seconds after burst, respectively. As the thermal energy is transported as light, it arrives at a given distance from ground zero much more quickly than the blast wave. As will be discussed below, this timing gives rise to some interesting effects. The prompt radiation, on the other hand, is tied to the fission and fusion processes that give rise to the explosion, and are of very short duration. It consists of gamma rays and neutrons.
The 5 calorie per square centimeter thermal contour is at 3.5 miles from ground zero. People at this distance would experience first degree burns on exposed skin, regardless of skin coloration. Per Fig3, a 16% fatality rate is experienced at this distance.
People standing in the open would be exposed to an ionizing radiation does of 100 rem, or 1 Sievert, to use the modern radiation dosage terminology, at a range of 3.2 miles. According to [7] this is the threshold for "no or slight illness", but that surely refers to the short term effect. In ordinary experience a chest x-ray provides a dose of 0.1 milliSievert (mSv), and a digital screening mammogram 0.23 mSv. [12] Thus 100 rem is the equivalent of 10,000 chest x-rays or 4348 digital screening mammograms. The American Cancer Society has recommended biannual vice annual mammograms for some women based on the comparative risks of later detection of breast cancer versus inducing it. So, decide for yourself: Is 100 rem a "safe" dose? Per Fig3, the fatality rate is 22%.
At a distance of 2.65 miles from ground zero, the thermal signature is 10 cal/cm^2. This produces third degree burns on exposed skin, and ignites easily burnable material such as wood, paper, and light clothing. The estimated fatality rate per Fig3 is 37%. Because the thermal signal precedes the shock wave, most of the fires started as a result of 10 cal/cm^2 or greater thermal loading will be extinguished, either by the wind itself or via collapse of the structure, the debris pile serving to suffocate the fire. That said, the actual experience of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrate that the shock wave is insufficient to prevent a conflagration or even a fire storm.
People directly exposed to the event at a distance of 2.3 miles would receive a radiation dose of 500 rem (5 Sv) which per [7] would alone be sufficient to produce 50% fatalities within a few weeks. Per Fig3, the overall fatality rate is 46%, which is not inconsistent with the foregoing figure, because not everyone receives a 5 Sv radiation dose.
The 20 cal/cm^2 contour is at 1.98 miles from ground zero. Per Fig3 the estimated fatality rate at this distance from ground zero is 56%. As to effects, here [7] shows its age: Published in 1977 and based on tests occurring as much as 30 years earlier, there are no data on most synthetic fabrics or the plastics that have become ubiquitous in our surroundings. The effects on natural fabrics depend strongly on weight and color; at this exposure level, aside from wool most are ignited. Rayon and acetate ignite. Neoprene melts. Rubber, as used in motor vehicle tires, is set ablaze. Certainly 20 cal/cm^2 produces horrible burns - worse than 3rd degree on exposed skin and 3rd degree through some clothing.
To do a proper job of estimating nuclear radiation casualties, I would need computational capabilities that I do not have, including a current climate model, access to detailed meteorological data, and a somewhat more capable computer. The prompt radiation produces effects that are strongly dependent upon the degree and type of shielding between the source and victim, structural material that is entirely intact when the irradiation is received. At lower levels of exposure, the effects generally require months to decades to manifest, and the prompt- and fallout induced pathologies are thus difficult at best to disentangle. As an air burst is assumed, most of the long term fallout will be in the form of fission products such as Strontium 90, fission neutron activated products such as Carbon 14, and residue fissile material such as Plutonium 239. One microgram of Pu239 is sufficient to cause lung cancer or leukemia if inhaled, and a typical nuclear weapon produces kilograms of fissile residue. 1 kg = 1 billion micrograms, so the potential for carcinogenesis is huge.
Before proceeding to examine a selection of individual structures, we summarize the damage to major infrastructure elements in downtown St Louis:
There are three highway- and one railroad bridge within the 10 psi overpressure contour, and raised highways and railways, notably the I64/I44/I55 interchange. All would receive severe damage, up to and including collapse. The collapse of the bridges, together with the debris of automobiles, trucks and train cars on them at the time of the explosion, would render the Mississippi river unpassable. That translates to a stoppage of barge traffic from the upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio rivers to deep water ports further downstream, contributing to widespread economic losses and food shortages.
The large coal-fired power plant at Sauget, IL, within the 20 cal/cm^2 and 5 psi contours, would suffer major blast and fire damage, and the transmission line towers crossing the river would come down, with serious consequences for the electric power grid.
Railways, rolling stock and other rail infrastructure, including Union Station, would experience major- to catastrophic damage from past the South Jefferson Avenue overpass to East St. Louis.
The iconic Gateway Arch, designed to survive wind speeds of 150 mph [11] would probably be blown over or ripped from its foundation by the 420 mph wind associated with the 19 psi overpressure it would experience. (The loading imposed by a 420 mph wind is 7.84 times that of a 150 mph wind.)
Doing a detailed calculation of lives lost and economic damage sustained is beyond the scope of a study accomplishable within the time available for this post: It would take some months, working full time. It's beside the point anyway, eyes glaze over and brains numb when tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths are bandied about. So instead we will pick a few specific buildings and try to convey the fate of their inhabitants. A photo album of the sites selected is shown below. The discussion will proceed clockwise, starting at the upper left.
The Cathedral Basilica St Louis, located 3.22 miles from ground zero, is subject to an overpressure of 2.6 psi, thermal signal 7 cal/cm^2 and less than 1 rem of radiation. People standing outside receive second and third degree burns to exposed skin. Unfortunately the Cathedral's rose window faces the blast, and implodes, as do the small stained glass windows on the front facade. Slight injuries may result interior to the church due to flying glass. Per FIg3, the probability of fatality is 22%.
The Carr-Lake Middle School for the Performing Arts, located at 1.1 miles, had a student population of 448, grades 6-8, in 2019, and 37 teachers. It is one of 29 public schools within 2 miles of ground zero. In 2019, these schools had a population of 8424 students and 689 teachers. The initial radiation exposure to anyone in the open at Carr-Lake is 600 rem, leading to a probability of death greater than 50%. It experiences about 100 cal/cm^2 thermal loading, causing the death of anyone exposed to the bomb. Next, the 17 psi shock wave arrives at 310 mph, causing the collapse of the building. Per Fig3, the probability of death is 83%, which seems low.
Anyone exposed at the Souland Market Apartments, at 0.86 miles, receives about 1000 rem in prompt irradiation and is subjected to 150 cal/cm^2 thermal energy. The 19 psi overpressure, accompanied by a 440 mph wind gust, is sufficient to collapse the structure. The fraction dying at this distance, per Fig3, is 90%
The Patrick Henry Elementary School had 199 students, grades PK-6 and 22 teachers in the 2019 school year. At 0.8 miles from ground zero, it receives over 1000 rem prompt irradiation, 200 cal/cm^2 thermal and a 20 psi overpressure. The school is incinerated and crushed. Per Fig3 the fatality rate at this distance is 91%.
One Metropolitan Square is the tallest building in St Louis, and at 42 stories the second tallest in the state. Based on limited tenant information obtained via searching the internet, it is estimated that about 5000 people, of the 65,000 jobs in downtown St Louis according to downtownstl.com, work in this building. It is located 0.47 miles from ground zero, receives ca 5000 rem, over 500 cal/cm^2 and an overpressure of 42 psi. If you are middle aged or above, surely you remember watching the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center come down on 9/11. What would happen to One Metropolitan Square is nothing at all like that. Visualize a raw egg placed on a golf tee, and a golf pro using a sledge hammer to strike it. Per Fig3, the fatality rate at this range is 97%.
Finally we come to Busch III Stadium, 0.44 miles from ground zero. At capacity it holds 44,383 fans. Were a game to be in progress with a sell-out crowd when the bomb went off, 44,000 of those fans would die, either from the 10,000+ rem prompt radiation exposure, or the over 500 cal/cm^2 heat blast, or from the lung-crushing 48 psi overpressure accompanied by a 1,650 mph (Mach 2+) blast. There would be nothing left of the Stadium; charred fragments would be scattered over dozens of square kilometers.
Now we are at the end of this dismal exercise. Do we find it acceptable to plan a war in which the foregoing can be played out for 25 US cities? Is the capability to produce this level of terror sufficient to deter any sane person from maintaining an arsenal that is even more destructive? If you agree that nuclear weapons stockpiles need to be reduced from their current 1,700+ warheads quantities, please contact your representatives in Congress immediately to voice your opinion. There is a brief window of opportunity to cancel the Sentinel ICBM program - a window that will close within weeks if not days. To assist you in contacting your representatives, here is the directory for the House of Representatives:
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative
and the one for the Senate:
https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
Notes
[1] Robock, A. and O.B. Toon, Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340212459127
[2] Turco, R.P., O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman, J.B. Pollack and Carl Sagan ("TTAPS"), Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.222.4630.1283
[3] Toon, O.B., et al., Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
[4] The 50 warheads per side figure is an ansatz that is subject to downward revision should detailed modeling indicate it would be catastrophic for the climate. There is on reason whatsoever to think that the scenario is representative of any real war plan. It is ludicrous to suppose that the US and Russia would limit themselves to 50 warheads given the numbers in their present inventories, but the entire point of the exercise is to facilitate contemplation of a survivable nuclear war.
[5] Per [6], below, the combined 2023 population of these 25 metropolitan areas in 20 states plus DC was 139.64 million, in other words, 42% of the country's population.
[7] Glasstone, S. and P.J. Dolan, The effects of nuclear weapons, 3rd edition. A free pdf version can be obtained from https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6852629 . Sadly, that does not include the circular slide rule. For a hard copy, complete with the Bomb Effects Computer, go to https://catalog.gpo.gov/F/3YRFHC9B37LYGD5Y125KLTAIN92V94KE8PYRM8NXNEH9824QYQ-52901?func=full-set-set&set_number=001503&set_entry=000007&format=999 . Also, in preparing this post I implemented portions as a Jupyter worksheet, which as always I am happy to make available to paid subscribers.
[8] https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=18/38.62740/-90.19920 is a street map site that I find greatly superior to the ad-laden, privacy trampling competition. The link provided opens up to a view of St Louis, centered on ground zero.
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujita_scale
[11] https://ascelibrary.org/doi/epdf/10.1061/ciegag.0000556
[12] https://www.acr.org/-/media/ACR/Files/Radiology-Safety/Radiation-Safety/Dose-Reference-Card.pdf